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Florida Presidential Election Results

In the closing days of the 2016 election cycle, Florida had become way too close to call in favor of either candidate.  This meant that it was a crucial state for either candidate to win in order to secure the Presidency.  In the end, the state ended up going to President-Elect Donald J Trump. Here is a breakdown of where the counties voted democrat versus republican (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/).

Here we can see that the majority of the counties did in fact go red, but the blue counties did have quite a pull on the overall impact of the results.

This map shows us where the heavy voter turn out was, and we can see that some, not all, of the counties that went blue had relatively high voter turnout. 

In the end, the state's 29 electoral votes went to Trump, who so far has received a total of 4,591,278, or 49%. Clinton received 4,462,415, gaining 48% of the vote.  It was a very tight race in Florida, and it was not called super early due to the close numbers we can see above.

Florida counties to watch for early signs on 2016 Presidential race

Many early votes have been cast this election season, so we will be able to start seeing better indicators on whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 Presidential race by the end of election day.

1. Pinellas County

• Obama won against Romney by 5 points in 2012. If Pinellas closer to tied early on, it would not be reassuring for Clinton and be a hopeful situation for Trump.

2. Pascal County

• Romney won by 6 points in 2012. If Trump does not start with a significant lead, it is good news for Clinton.

3. Hillsborough County

• Obama won by 7 points in 2012. If Trump leads or is even close behind Clinton, it is bad news for Clinton.

4. Miami-Dade

• Obama won by 24 points! If Clinton is not up by at least 20 points, it will be a good night for Trump.

5. Duval County

• Romney won by 4 points in 2012. Duval is considered a key Republican stronghold with a large Democratic-leaning African American population in Jacksonville. If Trump starts out doing better than Romney, it'll be good news for Trump.

6. Volusia Country

• Romney narrowly won in 2012. It will be good news for whoever Volusia start leaning towards.

Read more here: http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/whos-going-to-win-florida-here-are-six-counties-to-watch/2301848

Puerto Ricans could largely influence presidential race in Florida

Florida's Puerto Rican could play a big role in this election.

As a major swing state with 29 electoral votes Florida is the most likely state to tip the election and will likely come down to the Latino vote. The only way Clinton can win the state is if she motivates enough Latino voters and so far Latino early votes are up 150 percent compared to 2012.

Puerto Ricans, who typically vote Democrat, now make up more than a quarter of the state's Latino voters after more than 130,000 came to the state between 2006 and 2013.

While Puerto Ricans on the island are U.S. citizens they have no representation in Congress. The way the Republicans have handled economic decisions on the island could prompt their voter turnout to be anti-Republcian giving Clinton the important votes.

The U.S. government gave business a tax break if they moved to Puerto Rico instead of somewhere else. This cost the government a lot of money, so in 2006 they ended the tax break on U.S. businesses in Puerto Rico, which put the island's economy in a recession. It was Republicans who supported this decision.

Puerto Ricans have responded by leaving the island, many of them going to Florida, especially the Orlando region. Now they could very likely influence this presidential election.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/4/13521530/florida-puerto-rican-hispanic-vote

Florida Presentation: Recent Election History and Current Trends

Background on Florida

In the U.S. Census Bureau's most recent population estimate, Florida is estimated to have a population around 20.3 million people.

Population changes since 2000:

2000: 16.0 million

• Age 65 and over: 17.6%

2015: 20.3 million

• Age 65 and over: 19.4%

The percentage of citizens over the age of 65 in Florida has increased by almost 2% between 2000 and 2015. While the vote is much more complex than just "most people over 65 vote Republican," Donald Trump and the Republican party should find this increase to be favorable to the goals of their campaigns.

Changing Demographics in Florida's Latino Population

Latino Population in 2000:

Of total FL population:
Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 16.8%

Of FL Latino population:
Cuban: 31%
Puerto Rican: 18%
Mexican: 13.5%
Other Hispanic origin: 37.4%

Latino Population in 2014:

Of total FL population:
Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 23%

Of FL Latino population:
Cuban: 29%
Puerto Rican: 20%
Mexican: 15%
Other Hispanic origin: 37.5%

The percentage of Puerto Rican Americans out of the Florida Latino population has increased by 2% between 2000 and 2014. The Cuban American population has traditionally voted Republican. Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2016 has been encouraging the increasing Puerto Rican population to vote Democratic since they could actually affect the results of the election.

Key Presidential Elections

The republican party won Florida's 25 electoral votes in 1992. With 40.89% of votes for Republican candidate George H. W. Bush, who beat Democratic candidate Bill Clinton's 39% of votes.

This election marked the beginning of Florida transitioning away from a strong Republican state and into its current identity as a swing state. Also, new to this election was a greater number of electoral votes. The previous presidential election in 1988 had 21 electors. 

Senate: Contrary to the presidential election, a Democrat Bob Graham won the Senate race by 66% over Republican Bill Grant.

House: Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 13 Republicans were elected into the House of Representatives, while 10 Democrats were.

This election solidified Florida as a swing state. Democratic candidate Bill Clinton beat Republican candidate Robert Dole 48.02% to 42.32%. It was the first time since 1976 a Democrat presidential candidate took the state. 

The electoral number was 25 again this year. Clinton was able to boost the turnout of Latinos and Blacks to help him win the state.

While no previously blue counties turned red, 9 counties turned blue.

Senate: no Senate race

House: Contrary to the presidential election, the majority of representatives were Republicans. Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 15 Republicans were put into the House of Representatives, while 8 Democrats were chosen.

The following presidential election Republicans barely took back the state with George W. Bush receiving 48.85% of the votes and Al Gore receiving 48.84%. After a recount Bush took the 25 electoral votes from the state.

The Democrats lost a portion of their 1996 Cuban-American voters when President Bill Clinton's Attorney General ordered a 6-year-old Cuban refugee to be returned to Cuba, likely causing them the election.

Senate: Contrary to the presidential race, a democratic Senator took the Senate race. Current Senator Bill Nelson was first elected in 2000 with 51% of votes against Republican Bill McCollum with 46.2% of votes.

House:  Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 15 Republicans were put into the House of Representatives, while 8 Democrats were chosen.





After Bush re-won the state in 2004, when the electoral votes bumped up to 27 the Democratic party took the state again in 2008.

President Barack Obama won the state 50.9% to Republican John McCain with 48.4%.

Obama won Orlando, Orange County and Tampa Bay Hillsborough County, previously claimed by Bush in 2004.

Senate: no Senate race

House: Contrary to the presidential elections, the majority of representatives for the House were Republicans with 23, and 10 Democrats.








References

http://www.npr.org/2016/01/07/462255563/how-floridas--district-maps-could-give-democrats-an-edge

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1996&fips=12&f=1&off=0&elect=0

http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/florida.html

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?

pid=DEC_10_SF1_QTP10&prodType=table

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_15_1YR_S0102&prodType=table

https://www.census.gov/census2000/states/fl.html

https://results.elections.myflorida.com/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanics_and_Latinos_in_Florida

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/sep/23/older-americans-vote-republican-fact-check-election-2016

Interstate 4: Florida's primary battleground

Northern Florida is mostly Republican and Southern Florida is mostly Democratic, but on this strip of land stretching from the Tampa Bay area through Orlando to Daytona Beach, Interstate 4, according to The Associated Press, "More than a third of I-4 voters are registered Democrats, a third are registered Republicans and a quarter have no party affiliation."

Both Presidential candidates campaigned forcefully in this region last week.

http://fortune.com/2016/10/31/presidential-election-florida/

Mike Pence speaks in Maitland

Today Mike Pence made a stop in Maitland to campaign for his running mate. He made a point to let everyone know that the race in Florida is far from finished and that it is extremely close.  He cited the polls and made jokes about how Clinton was about to measure the curtains because she had Florida in the bag, however Trump has recently made quite a comeback.  He was very careful about discussing Clinton's misuse of classified information over email, but he made sure everyone know that nobody in this country is above the law.  He highly encouraged everyone to get out and vote early and let everyone know where the nearest early voting location is.  Many people in the crowd were very focused on a Republican win down ballot as well as presidentially.

Source: http://www.sun-sentinel.com

The House of Representitives was already going to lose Republicans this election after maxing out their majority and with a liberal leaning voter turnout this presidential election, according to NPR.

However, with the redestricing of the maps in 2010 Democratic opportunities are limited, but court-ordered redistricing will give Democrats an initial boost.

In Florida, while Republican House candidates are expected to still takeover there are districts NPR deems likely to turn Democrat this election. Six of Florida's districts made this list of 40 districts, all of them at the top for most likely to flip.

Florida's old congressional districts        

Florida's new congressional districts

1. Florida's 2nd District is likely to switch from Democrat to Republican as a result of the redistricting.

2. Florida's 10th District is predicted to turn Democrat. This is a result of the redistricting as current Rep. Dan Webster decided to run in the neighboring district where his chances of being elected as a republican are more likely.

4.Rep. David Jolly of Florida's 13th District also initially intended not to re-run due to redrawings of his district that make it more difficult for a Republican to get elected.

8. Democrats are now favored in Florida's 7th District of Puerto Rico thanks to its Puerto Rican population. With a strong Democratic candidate, Stephanie Murphy, whose immigrant story is affective in refuting Trump this district is likely to flip as well.

9. Florida's 26th District is a tough district for Republicans and is likely to turn Democratic, despite the unfavorable Democratic candidate.

14. Florida's 18th District is usually Republican in presidential election years. It's also the district democratic governor nominee Patrick Murphy currently serves as Democratic. The disappointing nature of the democratic candidate has Republicans feeling hopeful.

Source: http://www.npr.org/2016/10/24/499082622/house-top-40-flipping-control-still-a-tough-task-for-democrats

Bill Clinton Preaching to Black and Jewish Congregations

Today, Bill Clinton was in southern Florida stumping for his wife at several churches where the congregations are predominately black or Jewish.  Amongst his typical "friendly man" rhetoric, he was doing a lot of name dropping of famous black people from world history such as Muhammad Ali and Nelson Mandela. While never mentioning Donald Trump by name, he was quick to dismiss just about everything that he has ever said.  It was noted that at the age of 70, Clinton's powerful persona wasn't nearly as clear and strong as it once was. He did, however, make a point to stop and speak with musicians on his way to the pulpit at one church, especially nodding to the saxophonist.

The blacks and Jewish are two groups who's votes are vital for Clinton to obtain if she is to beat Trump in Florida.  He noted that people should stop lashing out against Trump supporters because there doesn't need to be any more anger and hate in this election cycle.  His main goal in all of this was to try to persuade more people to actually get out and vote since it is the one day that everybody has an equal amount of power regardless of how much money they have.

Source: http://www.sun-sentinel.com

Who's funding Florida's Senate race?

Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy have received more than $24.8 million in donations from outside groups.

The amount of donations Florida's U.S. Senate has received is nowhere near the amount others states have seen.

Here's how the dollar amounts have been used thus far in the Senate race: $17.8 million attacking Murphy and $1.4 million supporting Rubio and on the other side, $4.9 million attacking Rubio and $752,000 supporting Murphy, according to Florida Politics.

In other words, 92 percent of the money has been used to bash the opposing candidate rather than create a media that lays out the candidate's policies. Meanwhile, 77 percent of these dollars are supporting Rubio.

The amount of money spent on negative advertising shouldn't come as a huge surprise, however it's important to note that when 92 percent of donation dollars are used criticize an opponent rather than recognize a candidate's qualities we're failing at an opportunity to educate people on the real issues.

Campaign advertisements aren't something people chose to consume, rather they're put in places consumers happen upon without choice.

But the polls don't reflect the dollars spent from outside donations. While Rubio is receiving such great amounts of donations in comparison to Murphy, he's only in a 4.7 lead, according to Real Clear Politics. I should point out, I also heard on NPR Murphy's father is budgeting most of his campaign expenses. Therefore, he's not relying as much on outside donors.

However, I'm wondering, in what spaces are these dollars put to use and who has access to them? 

Because I sense that millennials, often liberal leaning, might not be part of the audience consuming these negative advertisements, which could explain why Murphy is barely lagging in the polls even though his donations are so much less.

This goes back to an idea I've had that Republicans focus more on campaigning across as much geographic space as possible, because their voters are more spread out in rural place. So meanwhile, maybe Democrats are pursuing outreach through a different kind of space. For example, appearances on certain networks, partnership of ideas with other politically vocal people etc.

There isn't a lot of this comradery going on in the splintered Republican party at the moment.








Sources
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/224283-outside-groups-pour-24-million-florida-u-s-senate-race-mostly-aiding-marco-rubio

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/fl/florida_senate_rubio_vs_murphy-5222.html

Mail In Ballot Signatures

There has been increasing fire from the Florida Democratic Party because of the amount of mail in ballots that are rejected each year due to the voter's signature not matching close enough to what is on file. The democrats filed a lawsuit as a result of this, saying that those who's ballots are rejected should be given an opportunity to fix their ballot before election day.  In the past, these voters have had no idea about this until after the election, when their ballot no longer could be counted.  The reasoning behind this lawsuit is that people's handwriting changes over the years and they should not be denied their rights to vote based on this.

Source: http://www.news4jax.com/

Florida voter registration extended until October 18

Florida Democrats were able to score a victory on October 12, 2016 after claiming that voter registraton needed to be extended because of the stress from Hurricane Matthew.

Judge Mark E. Walker, of the US District Court for the Northern District of Florida, granted a preliminary injuction with a deadline on October 11, but was extended to October 12 in order to be able to hold hearings. Judge Walker was able to hear a testimony from the Leon County Supervisor of Elections about the "tremendous strain" the storm put on election offices.

Governor Rick Scott told reporters last week told reports that he was not planning on making any changes and that people have had enough time to register.

The attorney for the Florida Democratic party and the Clinton campaign, Marc Elias, had to argue that Florida voters needed the extension because the hurricane was a life threatening obstacle that kept them from registering.

Pamela Goodman, the president of the League of Women Voters of Florida, is happy that her organization can now make up for lost time caused by the storm.

Judge Walker and Myrna Perez, deputy director of the Brennan Center's Democracy Program, placed great emphasis on how the ruling upheld the United States' value of having citizens be able to exercise their fundamental right to vote.

Florida Voter Registration Deadline

Tomorrow is the deadline to register to vote in Florida, but the state's Democratic Party is not pleased with that deadline.  They believe that the registration deadline should be extended due to Hurricane Matthew, but Governor Rick Scott claims that the people have had plenty of time to register for this crucial election.  The democrats have filed a lawsuit in federal court on Sunday, asking the judge to extend the voter registration period by at least a week stating that the deadline is "forcing voters to choose between their safety and the safety of their families, on one hand, and their fundamental right to vote, on the other hand." In many areas of Florida, the US Postal Service has suspended its services until the storm passes, making it impossible for many to register by mail.  Also, many roads and bridges are closed, making it much more difficult to go anywhere.  Many people have also evacuated the area after Gov. Scott recommended it to the people.  So far, Florida has roughly 12.5 million registered voters.  Many democrats are claiming that by refusing to extend the deadline, Gov. Scott is violating federal law because it implies he is favoring certain voters over others.

http://www.baynews9.com

Florida GOP leaders rebuke Trump for leaked vulgar conversation

A vulgar conversation between Trump and Billy Bush of "Access Hollywood" from 2005 was leaked on October 7, 2016. Trump, in the recording, talked about how he pursued a married woman, but expressed regret that he was not able to have sex with her when he said, "I moved on her like a bitch, but couldn't get there." A disparaging comment he added about the woman was, "She now got the big phony tits and everything." He said his celebrity status allowed him to do anything with women, even "grab them by the pussy" whenever he wanted.
Read more and watch recording here: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/politics/donald-trump-women.html?ribbon-ad-idx=2&rref=us

Trump released a recorded apology to saying that these words were wrong and do not reflect him. However, the damage has been done. Republican leaders in Florida have gone on to make several comments rebuking Trump.

Florida Governor Rick Scott, the chairman of national super PAC supporting Trump and a father of two girls, said, "I'm not following politics closely right now, but this is terrible. I don't agree with anyone talking like this about anyone, ever."

U.S. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart of Miami called Trump's statements "unacceptable and offensive," but is glad that he apologized.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said, "As the grandfather of two precious girls, I find that no apology can excuse away Donald Trump's reprehensible comments degrading women."

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, who is running for re-election, said, "Donald's comments were vulgar, egregious, and impossible to justify. No one should talk about any woman in those terms, even in private."
Read more here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/07/florida-gop-leaders-outraged-trump-tape/91764594/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatoday-newstopstories

Trump has made controversial comments before that have not really seemed to affect him in the polls, but the reaction of Florida GOP leaders to this leaked recording of Trump could mean a much different outlook on how Florida will decide to vote this November.

Florida disproportionately keeps blacks with previous felony convictions from voting

About 6.1 millions Americans will not be able to vote this election due to state laws preventing felonies from voting.

Florida, Iowa and Virginia are the most extreme with a lifetime voting ban on those who've been convicted of felonies. Florida prevents the most of its population from voting due to these laws (Fig. 1). This law also prevents 1 in 5 of Florida's African Americans from voting, according to The New York Times.

(Fig. 1)

The article also points out institutionalized racism's role in the sentencing process contributes to the disproportionate amount of blacks who now can't vote.

I did some digging myself. I noticed Iowa prevents a much smaller number of felonies from voting than other states that also have a lifetime voting ban law (Fig. 1). So I looked into the percentage of the population blacks in Iowa.

Iowa has a population of 3.5 percent African Americans, according to the U.S. Census and only prevents 2.2 percent of its population from voting even though it also has the lifetime voting ban law. Meanwhile, Florida's preventing 10.4 percent of its population from voting, but also has a much higher black population than Iowa at 16.8 percent.

Now I'll compare the state's black populations to the percent of blacks in the number of banned voters. Only 3.5 percent of Iowa's population is African American, while 9.5 percent of those prevented from voting are black (Fig. 2). These numbers are disproportionate. In Florida, while 16.8 percent of the population is black, 21.3 percent of those who can't vote are black (Fig. 2)

(Fig. 2)

Only a quarter of the country's population that can't vote is currently incarcerated, according to The Times. Two of the three states that have these lifetime voting bans on people with felony convictions also are disproportionately affecting blacks the most: Florida and Virginia (Fig. 2).

So who are these laws preventing from voting: those with felony convictions or African Americans?
Why would someone previously convicted of a felony be deemed stable enough to live in society next to fellow citizens again, but not safe enough to vote and contribute to American politics?



source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/06/us/unequal-effect-of-laws-that-block-felons-from-voting.html?_r=0

Florida's Latinos vote fluidly

The political landscape is changing in Florida as Latinos break their state’s tradition of voting republican.

Ten years ago 37 percent of Florida’s Latinos were republican and 33 percent were democrats. This year only 26 percent are registered as republicans while 37 are registered as democrats, while independents are increasingly leaning democrat as well.

Few places in America’s voting landscape are as fluid and changing as Florida’s Latino population, according to The New York Times.

This could be because Florida’s Latino population have immigrated from a variety of places: Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Cuba, etc., they have different ideas of what politics should and shouldn’t be.

For example, voters from Venezuela will reject anything that reminds them of their home country's authoritarian president and while Venezuelans as well as Colombians and Brazilians escaped leftist politics they still typically become Democrats in the U.S, according to the times

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/03/us/hispanic-voters-florida-republicans.html?_r=0

In Florida poll after first debate, Clinton pulls ahead of Trump

Before the first presidential debate, Clinton and Trump were tied at 43 percent on the Quinnipiac Poll. Now, the Quinnipiac has posted one of the first results after the first presidential debate, which shows Clinton at 46 percent and Trump at 41 percent.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-clinton-opens-up-lead-over-trump-in-florida-poll-20161003-story.html

Five Thirty Eight's polls only analysis sees Florida having a 19 percent chance of providing the decisive vote in the Electoral College, so the new poll results after the first debate must be very encouraging for the Clinton campaign.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-really-really-needs-to-win-florida/

I wonder if the next Presidential debates will change people's outlooks or the trajectory of the election will continue in this direction.

The second Presidential debate will be on October 9, 2016 at 9pm ET.

Ballot Battle of Medical Marijuana

One of the major issues facing Florida voters this year is whether or not to legalize full strength medical marijuana. Both sides only have five weeks to attempt to persuade others of their opinions, and so far millions of dollars have been spent on adds regarding Amendment 2.  A poll last week showed that 73 percent of likely voters support Amendment 2, and in order for it to be added to the state constitution, it needs to have 60% support. The opposition to this amendment greatly fear it will promote drug abuse by legalizing it. There have already been programs to develop a strain of marijuana with lower THC to prevent the euphoric high it gives.  This drug went on sale in July.

Source: http://www.tampabay.com/

Clean Energy in Florida's Senate Race

An inflammatory statement about U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy’s support for cleaner energy could cost him some votes in his Senate race between republican candidate Marco Rubio.

The statement, shared by Americans for Prosperity Florida (APF), says that Murphy’s support for President Barack Obama’s Clean Energy Plan would raise the cost of utility fees by another $500 in the state.

With a closer look into how the Environmental Protection Agency which would reduce carbon emission by 30 percent by 2030 clarifies the APF’s statement as ‘mostly false,’ according to a PoltiFact Florida article.

A study from Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) suggested that Florida’s electric and gas bill would rise $464 by 2020, but EVA now says the study is outdated due to changes in the energy sector: decreased electricity demand, more solar and wind energy and lower gas prices. Meanwhile, the EPA predicts electricity prices will eventually go down.

What the article doesn’t mention, because it’s beside the fact-check, is how this statement influenced voters, if at all. And while Marco Rubio is telling voters he wants the country to lead the world in renewable energy (and all other energy), he also hasn’t recognized the reality of climate change. He’s is appealing to more voters with this tactic of appearing to support both sides of the energy sector.

Source: http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/politifact-florida-koch-backed-group-makes-outdated-attack-on-rep-patrick/2295182

After debate, Trump and Clinton will head to Florida

The first presidential debate of 2016 is over. Eighteen of 20 members in a CNN focus group of undecided voters in Orlando said that Clinton won the debate last night.

Now, Trump and Clinton are seeking to gain momentum in Florida.

Trump will head to Miami this afternoon for an invite only meeting with Hispanic Republicans and then to Melbourne International airport in the evening for a rally.

Clinton's running mate, Tim Kaine, had been campaigning in Florida for the past couple of days in order to get a head start and has just left. Clinton will head to Broward and St. Lucie counties this Friday.

Sources:
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/florida-focus-group-clinton-won-debate/2295367
http://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/26/trump-clinton-head-back-florida-after-debate/91110014/
http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/florida-playbook/2016/09/tough-debate-over-trump-hits-florida-giffords-gun-control-group-is-orlando-bound-schools-chief-pulls-terrible-ad-neo-nazi-fliers-surface-in-jacksonville-216527

Rubio Accepting More Senate Debate Invites

The senate race between Republican incumbent Marco Rubio, and Democrat Patrick Murphy has been getting heated lately.  Many residents of Florida would love the opportunity to see these two leading candidates debate more before the election, however this is proving to be very difficult as the two candidates seem to be having a hard time mutually agreeing to do events together. So far, they have only committed to two events together, but the citizens of Florida want to see more.  Although both camps have expressed interest in having joint events, neither side seems to be compromising in order to make it happen.  Rubio has accepted at least eight invitations for potential debates, however Murphy has not responded to many of those. The dates of these events would require negotiations with Murphy's camp, and there have been no signs of that occurring yet.  On the other hand, Murphy is committed to doing three debates and one candidate forum, however Rubio doesn't want to go over the details of one of the debates and the candidate forum because he senses much bias in Murphy's favor.  Overall, it seems like both candidates are avoiding events that could easily swing in their opponent's favor.

Millennial voters in Florida can end the battle, if they vote

Millennials now outnumber Baby Boomers in Florida.

The generation that dominates Florida’s poll attendance in November could strongly influence the outcome of the presidential election, since the state carries 29 electoral votes. Millennials, currently aged 18-34, are the most diverse cohort in Florida with over 50 percent of non-white race. Non-white voters are much less likely to vote for Trump, according to NPR.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/19/upshot/florida-poll-clinton-trump.html?_r=0

While there was an increase in voter turnout from millennials during primary season, the age-group still lagged behind the rest of voters, according to the article.

“It's fair to say that the 2016 election is NOT something people are feeling inspired by. Certainly, that's true of young voters as well, with the added frustration that many of the issues they feel so strongly about aren't a major part of the discussion by the major party candidates.”

With the presidential candidates much older than the millennials themselves, it won’t be the candidate’s policies and ideologies that are going to stimulate a passionate turnout from unenthused young voters. If millennials are inspired to vote in large numbers at all, it will likely be because they realize the preventative powers they have in keeping their least favorite candidate out of the White House. 

Source: http://www.npr.org/2016/09/18/493836716/florida-isnt-just-your-grandmas-battleground-state-anymore

Trump is back in action in Florida

Donald Trump has been significantly behind Hillary Clinton in the polling averages from Real Clear Politics since August 3, 2016 until a swift rise in the polls for Trump on August 3, 2016, that surpassed Clinton on September 12, 2016.

Support from many older whites is really keeping Trump in action. The elderly and non-Hispanic whites are most likely to vote. The race in Florida is ultimately about motivating white vs non-white voters. According to Marc Caputo of CNN Politics, "If he can keep Clinton’s white support below 35 percent (Obama won 37 percent, according to 2012 exit polls) and boost white turnout by just a few points, Florida operatives say he’ll likely win the state."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-florida-battleground-228189#ixzz4KQkJjZbL

African Americans, mixed-race voters, and Hispanics are more likely to vote Democrat, but have historically turned out less to vote, yet more likely to turn out during presidential election years. Because of the influence of Republican-leaning Cuban-Americans, Florida Latinos/as have had a slightly lower turnout than in other battleground states. However, the Clinton campaign is investing heavily in the turnout of the Puerto Rican population, which is the fastest growing Hispanic population in Florida and may soon match the numbers of Cuban-Americans in the state.

Trump's support from Republicans has been mixed since his nomination, but his rebound these past couple of days has generated some enthusiasm for him winning the election.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-rebound-gop-insiders-228262

Leading Florida Supreme Court Contenders

Florida Supreme Court Justice James Perry announced that he would be retiring from his position in the high court.  This is due to laws in Florida's constitution that force the retirement of anyone on the court that exceed the age of 70.  Perry is currently 72, but the constitution allows for some leeway to allow the justice to complete their current term if they have less than 3 years left.  Since his term ends later this year, he is legally forced to resign.  Perry traditionally sided with the more liberal justices, however his retirement allows Gov. Rick Scott to appoint a more conservative justice.

The process of appointing a new justice to the state's highest court is a complicated process, however three contenders are standing out early in the process. C. Alan Lawson is the chief judge of the Fifth District Court of Appeal.  He was appointed to that court by Jeb Bush in 2006. He graduated from Florida State University Law School in 1987 with the highest honors.  Daniel J. Gerber is another contender for the position.  He is a partner in the law office of Rumberger Kirk and Caldwell.  He is well trusted by Gov. Scott.  The third leading contender for the high court seat is Wendy Berger.  She is a district judge in the Fifth District Court of Appeal to which Gov. Scott appointed her.  She worked on criminal matters in Gov. Jeb Bush's legal office.

Gov. Scott has generally received positive feedback on his previous judicial appointments from everyone that interacts with them.  It is important to him that he appoints those justices that will put the Florida laws above everything, and treat everyone consistently.

Source:
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/