Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Florida Presidential Election Results
In the closing days of the 2016 election cycle, Florida had become way too close to call in favor of either candidate. This meant that it was a crucial state for either candidate to win in order to secure the Presidency. In the end, the state ended up going to President-Elect Donald J Trump. Here is a breakdown of where the counties voted democrat versus republican (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/).
Here we can see that the majority of the counties did in fact go red, but the blue counties did have quite a pull on the overall impact of the results.
This map shows us where the heavy voter turn out was, and we can see that some, not all, of the counties that went blue had relatively high voter turnout.
In the end, the state's 29 electoral votes went to Trump, who so far has received a total of 4,591,278, or 49%. Clinton received 4,462,415, gaining 48% of the vote. It was a very tight race in Florida, and it was not called super early due to the close numbers we can see above.
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Florida counties to watch for early signs on 2016 Presidential race
1. Pinellas County
- Obama won against Romney by 5 points in 2012. If Pinellas closer to tied early on, it would not be reassuring for Clinton and be a hopeful situation for Trump.
2. Pascal County
- Romney won by 6 points in 2012. If Trump does not start with a significant lead, it is good news for Clinton.
3. Hillsborough County
- Obama won by 7 points in 2012. If Trump leads or is even close behind Clinton, it is bad news for Clinton.
4. Miami-Dade
- Obama won by 24 points! If Clinton is not up by at least 20 points, it will be a good night for Trump.
5. Duval County
- Romney won by 4 points in 2012. Duval is considered a key Republican stronghold with a large Democratic-leaning African American population in Jacksonville. If Trump starts out doing better than Romney, it'll be good news for Trump.
6. Volusia Country
- Romney narrowly won in 2012. It will be good news for whoever Volusia start leaning towards.
Monday, November 7, 2016
Puerto Ricans could largely influence presidential race in Florida
Florida's Puerto Rican could play a big role in this election.
As a major swing state with 29 electoral votes Florida is the most likely state to tip the election and will likely come down to the Latino vote. The only way Clinton can win the state is if she motivates enough Latino voters and so far Latino early votes are up 150 percent compared to 2012.
Puerto Ricans, who typically vote Democrat, now make up more than a quarter of the state's Latino voters after more than 130,000 came to the state between 2006 and 2013.
While Puerto Ricans on the island are U.S. citizens they have no representation in Congress. The way the Republicans have handled economic decisions on the island could prompt their voter turnout to be anti-Republcian giving Clinton the important votes.
The U.S. government gave business a tax break if they moved to Puerto Rico instead of somewhere else. This cost the government a lot of money, so in 2006 they ended the tax break on U.S. businesses in Puerto Rico, which put the island's economy in a recession. It was Republicans who supported this decision.
Puerto Ricans have responded by leaving the island, many of them going to Florida, especially the Orlando region. Now they could very likely influence this presidential election.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/4/13521530/florida-puerto-rican-hispanic-vote
Tuesday, November 1, 2016
Florida Presentation: Recent Election History and Current Trends
Background on Florida
In the U.S. Census Bureau's most recent population estimate, Florida is estimated to have a population around 20.3 million people.Population changes since 2000:
2000: 16.0 million- Age 65 and over: 17.6%
- Age 65 and over: 19.4%
The percentage of citizens over the age of 65 in Florida has increased by almost 2% between 2000 and 2015. While the vote is much more complex than just "most people over 65 vote Republican," Donald Trump and the Republican party should find this increase to be favorable to the goals of their campaigns.
Changing Demographics in Florida's Latino Population
Latino Population in 2000:
Of total FL population:Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 16.8%
Of FL Latino population:
Cuban: 31%
Puerto Rican: 18%
Mexican: 13.5%
Other Hispanic origin: 37.4%
Latino Population in 2014:
Of total FL population:Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 23%
Of FL Latino population:
Cuban: 29%
Puerto Rican: 20%
Mexican: 15%
Other Hispanic origin: 37.5%
The percentage of Puerto Rican Americans out of the Florida Latino population has increased by 2% between 2000 and 2014. The Cuban American population has traditionally voted Republican. Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2016 has been encouraging the increasing Puerto Rican population to vote Democratic since they could actually affect the results of the election.
Key Presidential Elections
The republican party won Florida's 25 electoral votes in 1992. With 40.89% of votes for Republican candidate George H. W. Bush, who beat Democratic candidate Bill Clinton's 39% of votes.
This election marked the beginning of Florida transitioning away from a strong Republican state and into its current identity as a swing state. Also, new to this election was a greater number of electoral votes. The previous presidential election in 1988 had 21 electors.
Senate: Contrary to the presidential election, a Democrat Bob Graham won the Senate race by 66% over Republican Bill Grant.
House: Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 13 Republicans were elected into the House of Representatives, while 10 Democrats were.
House: Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 13 Republicans were elected into the House of Representatives, while 10 Democrats were.
This election solidified Florida as a swing state. Democratic candidate Bill Clinton beat Republican candidate Robert Dole 48.02% to 42.32%. It was the first time since 1976 a Democrat presidential candidate took the state.
The electoral number was 25 again this year. Clinton was able to boost the turnout of Latinos and Blacks to help him win the state.
While no previously blue counties turned red, 9 counties turned blue.
While no previously blue counties turned red, 9 counties turned blue.
Senate: no Senate race
House: Contrary to the presidential election, the majority of representatives were Republicans. Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 15 Republicans were put into the House of Representatives, while 8 Democrats were chosen.
The following presidential election Republicans barely took back the state with George W. Bush receiving 48.85% of the votes and Al Gore receiving 48.84%. After a recount Bush took the 25 electoral votes from the state.
The Democrats lost a portion of their 1996 Cuban-American voters when President Bill Clinton's Attorney General ordered a 6-year-old Cuban refugee to be returned to Cuba, likely causing them the election.
Senate: Contrary to the presidential race, a democratic Senator took the Senate race. Current Senator Bill Nelson was first elected in 2000 with 51% of votes against Republican Bill McCollum with 46.2% of votes.
House: Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 15 Republicans were put into the House of Representatives, while 8 Democrats were chosen.
After Bush re-won the state in 2004, when the electoral votes bumped up to 27 the Democratic party took the state again in 2008.
President Barack Obama won the state 50.9% to Republican John McCain with 48.4%.
Obama won Orlando, Orange County and Tampa Bay Hillsborough County, previously claimed by Bush in 2004.
Senate: no Senate race
House: Contrary to the presidential elections, the majority of representatives for the House were Republicans with 23, and 10 Democrats.
References
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1996&fips=12&f=1&off=0&elect=0
http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/florida.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanics_and_Latinos_in_Florida
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/sep/23/older-americans-vote-republican-fact-check-election-2016
Interstate 4: Florida's primary battleground
Northern Florida is mostly Republican and Southern Florida is mostly Democratic, but on this strip of land stretching from the Tampa Bay area through Orlando to Daytona Beach, Interstate 4, according to The Associated Press, "More than a third of I-4 voters are registered Democrats, a third are registered Republicans and a quarter have no party affiliation."
Both Presidential candidates campaigned forcefully in this region last week.
http://fortune.com/2016/10/31/presidential-election-florida/
Both Presidential candidates campaigned forcefully in this region last week.
http://fortune.com/2016/10/31/presidential-election-florida/
Monday, October 31, 2016
Mike Pence speaks in Maitland
Today Mike Pence made a stop in Maitland to campaign for his running mate. He made a point to let everyone know that the race in Florida is far from finished and that it is extremely close. He cited the polls and made jokes about how Clinton was about to measure the curtains because she had Florida in the bag, however Trump has recently made quite a comeback. He was very careful about discussing Clinton's misuse of classified information over email, but he made sure everyone know that nobody in this country is above the law. He highly encouraged everyone to get out and vote early and let everyone know where the nearest early voting location is. Many people in the crowd were very focused on a Republican win down ballot as well as presidentially.
Source: http://www.sun-sentinel.com
Source: http://www.sun-sentinel.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)