Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Florida Presentation: Recent Election History and Current Trends

Background on Florida

In the U.S. Census Bureau's most recent population estimate, Florida is estimated to have a population around 20.3 million people.

Population changes since 2000:

2000: 16.0 million
  • Age 65 and over: 17.6%
2015: 20.3 million
  • Age 65 and over: 19.4%
The percentage of citizens over the age of 65 in Florida has increased by almost 2% between 2000 and 2015. While the vote is much more complex than just "most people over 65 vote Republican," Donald Trump and the Republican party should find this increase to be favorable to the goals of their campaigns.

Changing Demographics in Florida's Latino Population

Latino Population in 2000:

Of total FL population:
Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 16.8%

Of FL Latino population:
Cuban: 31%
Puerto Rican: 18%
Mexican: 13.5%
Other Hispanic origin: 37.4%

Latino Population in 2014:

Of total FL population:
Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 23%

Of FL Latino population:
Cuban: 29%
Puerto Rican: 20%
Mexican: 15%
Other Hispanic origin: 37.5%

The percentage of Puerto Rican Americans out of the Florida Latino population has increased by 2% between 2000 and 2014. The Cuban American population has traditionally voted Republican. Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2016 has been encouraging the increasing Puerto Rican population to vote Democratic since they could actually affect the results of the election.

Key Presidential Elections

The republican party won Florida's 25 electoral votes in 1992. With 40.89% of votes for Republican candidate George H. W. Bush, who beat Democratic candidate Bill Clinton's 39% of votes.

This election marked the beginning of Florida transitioning away from a strong Republican state and into its current identity as a swing state. Also, new to this election was a greater number of electoral votes. The previous presidential election in 1988 had 21 electors. 

Senate: Contrary to the presidential election, a Democrat Bob Graham won the Senate race by 66% over Republican Bill Grant.

 House: Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 13 Republicans were elected into the House of Representatives, while 10 Democrats were.




This election solidified Florida as a swing state. Democratic candidate Bill Clinton beat Republican candidate Robert Dole 48.02% to 42.32%. It was the first time since 1976 a Democrat presidential candidate took the state. 

The electoral number was 25 again this year. Clinton was able to boost the turnout of Latinos and Blacks to help him win the state.

While no previously blue counties turned red, 9 counties turned blue.

Senate: no Senate race

House: Contrary to the presidential election, the majority of representatives were Republicans. Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 15 Republicans were put into the House of Representatives, while 8 Democrats were chosen.


The following presidential election Republicans barely took back the state with George W. Bush receiving 48.85% of the votes and Al Gore receiving 48.84%. After a recount Bush took the 25 electoral votes from the state.

The Democrats lost a portion of their 1996 Cuban-American voters when President Bill Clinton's Attorney General ordered a 6-year-old Cuban refugee to be returned to Cuba, likely causing them the election.

Senate: Contrary to the presidential race, a democratic Senator took the Senate race. Current Senator Bill Nelson was first elected in 2000 with 51% of votes against Republican Bill McCollum with 46.2% of votes.

House:  Of the 23 congressional districts at the time, 15 Republicans were put into the House of Representatives, while 8 Democrats were chosen.





After Bush re-won the state in 2004, when the electoral votes bumped up to 27 the Democratic party took the state again in 2008.

President Barack Obama won the state 50.9% to Republican John McCain with 48.4%.

Obama won Orlando, Orange County and Tampa Bay Hillsborough County, previously claimed by Bush in 2004.

Senate: no Senate race

House: Contrary to the presidential elections, the majority of representatives for the House were Republicans with 23, and 10 Democrats.






References

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1996&fips=12&f=1&off=0&elect=0



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