Mike Pence speaks in Maitland

Today Mike Pence made a stop in Maitland to campaign for his running mate. He made a point to let everyone know that the race in Florida is far from finished and that it is extremely close.  He cited the polls and made jokes about how Clinton was about to measure the curtains because she had Florida in the bag, however Trump has recently made quite a comeback.  He was very careful about discussing Clinton's misuse of classified information over email, but he made sure everyone know that nobody in this country is above the law.  He highly encouraged everyone to get out and vote early and let everyone know where the nearest early voting location is.  Many people in the crowd were very focused on a Republican win down ballot as well as presidentially.

Source: http://www.sun-sentinel.com

The House of Representitives was already going to lose Republicans this election after maxing out their majority and with a liberal leaning voter turnout this presidential election, according to NPR.

However, with the redestricing of the maps in 2010 Democratic opportunities are limited, but court-ordered redistricing will give Democrats an initial boost.

In Florida, while Republican House candidates are expected to still takeover there are districts NPR deems likely to turn Democrat this election. Six of Florida's districts made this list of 40 districts, all of them at the top for most likely to flip.

Florida's old congressional districts        

Florida's new congressional districts

1. Florida's 2nd District is likely to switch from Democrat to Republican as a result of the redistricting.

2. Florida's 10th District is predicted to turn Democrat. This is a result of the redistricting as current Rep. Dan Webster decided to run in the neighboring district where his chances of being elected as a republican are more likely.

4.Rep. David Jolly of Florida's 13th District also initially intended not to re-run due to redrawings of his district that make it more difficult for a Republican to get elected.

8. Democrats are now favored in Florida's 7th District of Puerto Rico thanks to its Puerto Rican population. With a strong Democratic candidate, Stephanie Murphy, whose immigrant story is affective in refuting Trump this district is likely to flip as well.

9. Florida's 26th District is a tough district for Republicans and is likely to turn Democratic, despite the unfavorable Democratic candidate.

14. Florida's 18th District is usually Republican in presidential election years. It's also the district democratic governor nominee Patrick Murphy currently serves as Democratic. The disappointing nature of the democratic candidate has Republicans feeling hopeful.

Source: http://www.npr.org/2016/10/24/499082622/house-top-40-flipping-control-still-a-tough-task-for-democrats

Bill Clinton Preaching to Black and Jewish Congregations

Today, Bill Clinton was in southern Florida stumping for his wife at several churches where the congregations are predominately black or Jewish.  Amongst his typical "friendly man" rhetoric, he was doing a lot of name dropping of famous black people from world history such as Muhammad Ali and Nelson Mandela. While never mentioning Donald Trump by name, he was quick to dismiss just about everything that he has ever said.  It was noted that at the age of 70, Clinton's powerful persona wasn't nearly as clear and strong as it once was. He did, however, make a point to stop and speak with musicians on his way to the pulpit at one church, especially nodding to the saxophonist.

The blacks and Jewish are two groups who's votes are vital for Clinton to obtain if she is to beat Trump in Florida.  He noted that people should stop lashing out against Trump supporters because there doesn't need to be any more anger and hate in this election cycle.  His main goal in all of this was to try to persuade more people to actually get out and vote since it is the one day that everybody has an equal amount of power regardless of how much money they have.

Source: http://www.sun-sentinel.com

Who's funding Florida's Senate race?

Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy have received more than $24.8 million in donations from outside groups.

The amount of donations Florida's U.S. Senate has received is nowhere near the amount others states have seen.

Here's how the dollar amounts have been used thus far in the Senate race: $17.8 million attacking Murphy and $1.4 million supporting Rubio and on the other side, $4.9 million attacking Rubio and $752,000 supporting Murphy, according to Florida Politics.

In other words, 92 percent of the money has been used to bash the opposing candidate rather than create a media that lays out the candidate's policies. Meanwhile, 77 percent of these dollars are supporting Rubio.

The amount of money spent on negative advertising shouldn't come as a huge surprise, however it's important to note that when 92 percent of donation dollars are used criticize an opponent rather than recognize a candidate's qualities we're failing at an opportunity to educate people on the real issues.

Campaign advertisements aren't something people chose to consume, rather they're put in places consumers happen upon without choice.

But the polls don't reflect the dollars spent from outside donations. While Rubio is receiving such great amounts of donations in comparison to Murphy, he's only in a 4.7 lead, according to Real Clear Politics. I should point out, I also heard on NPR Murphy's father is budgeting most of his campaign expenses. Therefore, he's not relying as much on outside donors.

However, I'm wondering, in what spaces are these dollars put to use and who has access to them? 

Because I sense that millennials, often liberal leaning, might not be part of the audience consuming these negative advertisements, which could explain why Murphy is barely lagging in the polls even though his donations are so much less.

This goes back to an idea I've had that Republicans focus more on campaigning across as much geographic space as possible, because their voters are more spread out in rural place. So meanwhile, maybe Democrats are pursuing outreach through a different kind of space. For example, appearances on certain networks, partnership of ideas with other politically vocal people etc.

There isn't a lot of this comradery going on in the splintered Republican party at the moment.








Sources
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/224283-outside-groups-pour-24-million-florida-u-s-senate-race-mostly-aiding-marco-rubio

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/fl/florida_senate_rubio_vs_murphy-5222.html

Mail In Ballot Signatures

There has been increasing fire from the Florida Democratic Party because of the amount of mail in ballots that are rejected each year due to the voter's signature not matching close enough to what is on file. The democrats filed a lawsuit as a result of this, saying that those who's ballots are rejected should be given an opportunity to fix their ballot before election day.  In the past, these voters have had no idea about this until after the election, when their ballot no longer could be counted.  The reasoning behind this lawsuit is that people's handwriting changes over the years and they should not be denied their rights to vote based on this.

Source: http://www.news4jax.com/

Florida voter registration extended until October 18

Florida Democrats were able to score a victory on October 12, 2016 after claiming that voter registraton needed to be extended because of the stress from Hurricane Matthew.

Judge Mark E. Walker, of the US District Court for the Northern District of Florida, granted a preliminary injuction with a deadline on October 11, but was extended to October 12 in order to be able to hold hearings. Judge Walker was able to hear a testimony from the Leon County Supervisor of Elections about the "tremendous strain" the storm put on election offices.

Governor Rick Scott told reporters last week told reports that he was not planning on making any changes and that people have had enough time to register.

The attorney for the Florida Democratic party and the Clinton campaign, Marc Elias, had to argue that Florida voters needed the extension because the hurricane was a life threatening obstacle that kept them from registering.

Pamela Goodman, the president of the League of Women Voters of Florida, is happy that her organization can now make up for lost time caused by the storm.

Judge Walker and Myrna Perez, deputy director of the Brennan Center's Democracy Program, placed great emphasis on how the ruling upheld the United States' value of having citizens be able to exercise their fundamental right to vote.

Florida Voter Registration Deadline

Tomorrow is the deadline to register to vote in Florida, but the state's Democratic Party is not pleased with that deadline.  They believe that the registration deadline should be extended due to Hurricane Matthew, but Governor Rick Scott claims that the people have had plenty of time to register for this crucial election.  The democrats have filed a lawsuit in federal court on Sunday, asking the judge to extend the voter registration period by at least a week stating that the deadline is "forcing voters to choose between their safety and the safety of their families, on one hand, and their fundamental right to vote, on the other hand." In many areas of Florida, the US Postal Service has suspended its services until the storm passes, making it impossible for many to register by mail.  Also, many roads and bridges are closed, making it much more difficult to go anywhere.  Many people have also evacuated the area after Gov. Scott recommended it to the people.  So far, Florida has roughly 12.5 million registered voters.  Many democrats are claiming that by refusing to extend the deadline, Gov. Scott is violating federal law because it implies he is favoring certain voters over others.

http://www.baynews9.com

Florida GOP leaders rebuke Trump for leaked vulgar conversation

A vulgar conversation between Trump and Billy Bush of "Access Hollywood" from 2005 was leaked on October 7, 2016. Trump, in the recording, talked about how he pursued a married woman, but expressed regret that he was not able to have sex with her when he said, "I moved on her like a bitch, but couldn't get there." A disparaging comment he added about the woman was, "She now got the big phony tits and everything." He said his celebrity status allowed him to do anything with women, even "grab them by the pussy" whenever he wanted.
Read more and watch recording here: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/politics/donald-trump-women.html?ribbon-ad-idx=2&rref=us

Trump released a recorded apology to saying that these words were wrong and do not reflect him. However, the damage has been done. Republican leaders in Florida have gone on to make several comments rebuking Trump.

Florida Governor Rick Scott, the chairman of national super PAC supporting Trump and a father of two girls, said, "I'm not following politics closely right now, but this is terrible. I don't agree with anyone talking like this about anyone, ever."

U.S. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart of Miami called Trump's statements "unacceptable and offensive," but is glad that he apologized.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said, "As the grandfather of two precious girls, I find that no apology can excuse away Donald Trump's reprehensible comments degrading women."

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, who is running for re-election, said, "Donald's comments were vulgar, egregious, and impossible to justify. No one should talk about any woman in those terms, even in private."
Read more here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/07/florida-gop-leaders-outraged-trump-tape/91764594/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatoday-newstopstories

Trump has made controversial comments before that have not really seemed to affect him in the polls, but the reaction of Florida GOP leaders to this leaked recording of Trump could mean a much different outlook on how Florida will decide to vote this November.

Florida disproportionately keeps blacks with previous felony convictions from voting

About 6.1 millions Americans will not be able to vote this election due to state laws preventing felonies from voting.

Florida, Iowa and Virginia are the most extreme with a lifetime voting ban on those who've been convicted of felonies. Florida prevents the most of its population from voting due to these laws (Fig. 1). This law also prevents 1 in 5 of Florida's African Americans from voting, according to The New York Times.

(Fig. 1)

The article also points out institutionalized racism's role in the sentencing process contributes to the disproportionate amount of blacks who now can't vote.

I did some digging myself. I noticed Iowa prevents a much smaller number of felonies from voting than other states that also have a lifetime voting ban law (Fig. 1). So I looked into the percentage of the population blacks in Iowa.

Iowa has a population of 3.5 percent African Americans, according to the U.S. Census and only prevents 2.2 percent of its population from voting even though it also has the lifetime voting ban law. Meanwhile, Florida's preventing 10.4 percent of its population from voting, but also has a much higher black population than Iowa at 16.8 percent.

Now I'll compare the state's black populations to the percent of blacks in the number of banned voters. Only 3.5 percent of Iowa's population is African American, while 9.5 percent of those prevented from voting are black (Fig. 2). These numbers are disproportionate. In Florida, while 16.8 percent of the population is black, 21.3 percent of those who can't vote are black (Fig. 2)

(Fig. 2)

Only a quarter of the country's population that can't vote is currently incarcerated, according to The Times. Two of the three states that have these lifetime voting bans on people with felony convictions also are disproportionately affecting blacks the most: Florida and Virginia (Fig. 2).

So who are these laws preventing from voting: those with felony convictions or African Americans?
Why would someone previously convicted of a felony be deemed stable enough to live in society next to fellow citizens again, but not safe enough to vote and contribute to American politics?



source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/06/us/unequal-effect-of-laws-that-block-felons-from-voting.html?_r=0

Florida's Latinos vote fluidly

The political landscape is changing in Florida as Latinos break their state’s tradition of voting republican.

Ten years ago 37 percent of Florida’s Latinos were republican and 33 percent were democrats. This year only 26 percent are registered as republicans while 37 are registered as democrats, while independents are increasingly leaning democrat as well.

Few places in America’s voting landscape are as fluid and changing as Florida’s Latino population, according to The New York Times.

This could be because Florida’s Latino population have immigrated from a variety of places: Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Cuba, etc., they have different ideas of what politics should and shouldn’t be.

For example, voters from Venezuela will reject anything that reminds them of their home country's authoritarian president and while Venezuelans as well as Colombians and Brazilians escaped leftist politics they still typically become Democrats in the U.S, according to the times

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/03/us/hispanic-voters-florida-republicans.html?_r=0

In Florida poll after first debate, Clinton pulls ahead of Trump

Before the first presidential debate, Clinton and Trump were tied at 43 percent on the Quinnipiac Poll. Now, the Quinnipiac has posted one of the first results after the first presidential debate, which shows Clinton at 46 percent and Trump at 41 percent.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-clinton-opens-up-lead-over-trump-in-florida-poll-20161003-story.html

Five Thirty Eight's polls only analysis sees Florida having a 19 percent chance of providing the decisive vote in the Electoral College, so the new poll results after the first debate must be very encouraging for the Clinton campaign.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-really-really-needs-to-win-florida/

I wonder if the next Presidential debates will change people's outlooks or the trajectory of the election will continue in this direction.

The second Presidential debate will be on October 9, 2016 at 9pm ET.

Ballot Battle of Medical Marijuana

One of the major issues facing Florida voters this year is whether or not to legalize full strength medical marijuana. Both sides only have five weeks to attempt to persuade others of their opinions, and so far millions of dollars have been spent on adds regarding Amendment 2.  A poll last week showed that 73 percent of likely voters support Amendment 2, and in order for it to be added to the state constitution, it needs to have 60% support. The opposition to this amendment greatly fear it will promote drug abuse by legalizing it. There have already been programs to develop a strain of marijuana with lower THC to prevent the euphoric high it gives.  This drug went on sale in July.

Source: http://www.tampabay.com/